Predicting Longevity: An Analysis of Potential Alternatives to Life Expectancy Reports

Abstract

Retirees, pension funds, and the insurance industry have all been negatively affected by the wrongful estimation of longevity. The inaccuracies in current life expectancy (LE) reports primarily result from misinterpretations of the influence of resilience factors on longevity. This study examines different and more accurate measurement metrics to minimize the risks related to biased LE calculations. By using both qualitative and quantitative research approaches, this research develops a new conceptual model: a two-factor-LE-analysis model with a telomere test as a medical basis (physiological factors) and a big data approach to filter the psychological factors to longevity. The authors suggest that the new model, together with the insights of the existing LE-projection methodologies, has considerable potential to improve LE predictions.

TOPICS: Retirement, risk management, statistical methods